Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

First, a statistic - this is the 100th post on this blog - congratulations! This is an excellent blog, and I wish you well for your next 100 and beyond.

This last weekend saw another row blow up about the misuse of statistics. The Daily Telegraph claimed

"More than 600,000 unemployed European Union migrants are living in Britain at a cost of £1.5 billion to the NHS alone, according to an EU report. The authoritative study, obtained by The Sunday Telegraph, shows the number of jobless European migrants coming to Britain has risen dramatically in the past five years, intensifying demands for the Government to renegotiate EU membership."

Outrageous you might say - and that was the intended response. This was a story intended to promote the Tory agenda of scapegoating both the poor and the EU. All Britain's ills come from the feckless poor and the evil empire that is the EU. Nothing to do with this government's redistribution of wealth from the many to the few; the activities of it's friends like the bankers (who it is standing up for against attempts to limit their bonuses...) and the pay-day lenders; and the policies which mean most people are working more for less.

But if you misrepresent a report - you face a backlash from its authors - and so the writers of the report have pointed out that:

• The proportion of non-active UK citizens in Britain is higher than the equivalent proportion of non-active EU nationals in Britain. Just under half (43%) of UK citizens aged over 15 are classified as non-active. This compares with 30% of EU nationals in the UK. There are 2.3 million EU residents in Britain, of whom 611,779 are non-active.

• A relatively small number of EU citizens in Britain – 60,000 – are claiming jobseeker's allowance, which works out at around 10% of the total non-active EU group. This compares with a 28% figure for the EU as a whole. The 60,000 figure is from the latest Department for Work and Pensions figures.

But they have "form" - Duncan Smith wrongly claimed in 2011 that EU citizens are costing Britain more than £2bn in benefits. This was revised down to £150m. An analyst commented, "Even for the £150m they haven't produced any figures to back up that claim."

Jonathan Portes, (An Economist) of National Institute of Economic and Social Research has said -

 

"The big picture is that most migrants from the new member states of the EU come here to work; they are young and place relatively few demands on public services.

Migrants in general, in particular those from the new member states, are less likely to claim benefits than the general population.

Overall, our assessment is that the impacts on the UK economy and labour market (of EU migration) are likely to be small, but broadly positive, as you would expect given that most new migrants will be relatively young and their primary motivation is to find work."

But the sinister background to this story is that they knew their misuse of statistics would be speedily challenged. They knew that the claims were unsustainable - but their election gurus will have told them it doesn't matter. People don't remember statistics - but the impression stays. We will meet people on the doorstep as the European and General Elections come closer, who will be affected by the impression that we are being overrun by benefit scroungers from Europe. We can't let them get away with it!

Angela Merkel

David F sent me this article from the Economist about Angela Merkel, who will still be Europe's dominant figure when we come to power in 2015. She will also be setting the agenda for the Euro elections next year, upon which the British parties will have to take a stance.

Thanks, David.

Youth unemployment update

I have posted as a separate page - click on the link on the right of the blog - Professor Sue Maguire's notes from her talk to the Branch last Tuesday.  As ever, enthralling and not a little terrifying.